OPEC revises down oil demand forecast for 2022

Downward demand growth revisions take account of economic forecasts and other developments that could impact oil requirements, OPEC says.

OPEC revises down oil demand forecast for 2022

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Thursday revised down its global oil demand estimates for 2022 by around 210,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared to last month's assessment.

Global oil demand is now estimated to reach 100.3 million bpd in 2022, around 1 million bpd higher than in 2019, according to OPEC's latest monthly oil market report.

The organization said world oil demand in the first quarter of 2022 recorded robust growth, mainly due to a strong economic rebound, supported by stimulus programs and a further easing of COVID-19 containment measures.

"OECD oil demand grew by 3.3 million bpd year-on-year while non-OECD requirements gained 1.9 million bpd as compared to the same quarter in 2021,” the report added.

"Downward revisions in the second, third and fourth quarter of 2022 for oil demand growth mainly took into account current economic forecasts and other developments that could potentially impact world oil requirements," OPEC explained.

Global supply falls in April

Global oil supply in April decreased by around 770,000 bpd compared to the previous month to average 98.74 million bpd, although this marked a year-on-year rise of 5.22 million bpd.

The organization's monthly oil market report showed that OPEC crude oil production averaged 28.65 million bpd in April, for an increase of about 153,000 bpd month on month. Crude oil output rose mainly in Saudi Arabia and Iraq, while production declined in Libya.

Production increased by 127,000 bpd to around 10.35 million bpd in Saudi Arabia and by 103,000 bpd to over 4.4 million bpd in Iraq. Meanwhile, oil output in Libya decreased by 161,000 bpd to around 913,000 bpd.

The share of OPEC crude out of total global production increased by a 0.4 percentage point to 29% in April compared with the previous month.

Non-OPEC liquids production, including OPEC natural gas liquids, fell by about 920,000 bpd in April compared to the previous month to average 70.1 million bpd, although this represented a year-on-year increase of 1.69 million bpd.

"Preliminary estimated decreases in production in April were mainly driven by Russia and Kazakhstan by 1.2 million bpd, while the US and Norway are expected to have growth in liquids output of around 300,000 bpd," the report said.

Hüseyin Demir

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