Military Intelligence foresees threats to Israel in 2015

Top Shin Bet assessment predicts Middle East will remain dangerous and unstable: with no international landlord in the Middle East, Arab states disintegrating, and enemies are looking at alternative tactics.

Military Intelligence foresees threats to Israel in 2015

World Bulletin / News Desk

The chronic economic crisis that is affecting the Arab Spring countries, and continues to worsen in light of the falling oil prices, is accelerating the internal disintegration of major countries such as Syria, Libya and Iraq, and could undermine stabilizing regimes like Iran and Egypt with the Middle East set to become one of the most dangerous places in the world to live.

With unemployment in Saudi Arabia reaching 30% amongst the youth, it is pushing many youth into radical Muslim organisations that could escalate violence in the Middle East. At this stage  The uncertainty, instability and volatility of the events taking place could shake the region without warning. Military intelligence officials from Shin Bet, are saying today that an intelligence assessment for an entire year is not possible. They say they can offer an assessment with a high degree of certainty only for the first few months of 2015, especially considering that the Israeli elections in March will not let on what could be a difficult year for the Middle East and in particular Israel, as a new government with a new cabinet will shoulder the new situation.

Every MI assessment begins with an overview of the regional picture from the perspective of the world powers. As of this point one thing is certain: The Middle East of today has no international landlord that can maintain a balance or facilitate international collaboration to preserve peace of sorts in the region. Vladimir Putin's Russia is making every effort to increase its influence in the Middle East by means of a firm foothold in Syria. The Russians, who have come to the aid of the Syrians in several key battles against the rebels, have despaired with the Syrian Army. Syrian and Iranian experts, working shoulder to shoulder in Syria, have already come to the conclusion that Syrian Army is not going to deliver the goods and stop the tide. Greater Syria no longer exists. The accepted term these days is Assad's "Little Syria," which controls 20-30 percent of the country. The remainder comprises independent cantons that are fighting against one another.

Israel's steps in with its role in the Golan Heights. Israel has aided the Free Syrian Army rebels and in turn the moderate Sunni groups have been deployed over a large portion of the Golan Heights, facing into Syria. They create a buffer and physically prevent elements such as Jabhat al-Nusra and ISIL from spilling over into the Israeli side of the Golan Heights.

For now, the report by Shin Bet indicates that the Arab Spring countries are falling into a deeper economic crisis and with the drop in petrol prices this will become far worse. This situation sees Iraq, Syria, and Libya even further divided and with different axis operating in the Middle East, what with Hezbollah and Hamas talking of attacking Israel with precise weapons, the situation looks grim. Israel is also looking at the potential of a cyber attack on its military and defense systems, as recently witnessed in North Korea. 

Güncelleme Tarihi: 30 Aralık 2014, 15:29